EIA: Crude draw beats forecasts as export surge drains Gulf Coast stocks to a near two-year low
US commercial crude inventories fell 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels in the week ended October 23, the EIA said, against a Reuters poll that had called for a 15,000 barrel rise.
US commercial crude inventories fell 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels in the week ended October 23, the EIA said, against a Reuters poll that had called for a 15,000 barrel rise. Brent held gains after the release, trading at $115.66 a barrel, with WTI up $2.48, as the market absorbed a report that was tighter than almost anyone had positioned for.
Exports surged 1.4 million barrels a day to 4.85 million, overwhelming a 616,000 barrel a day rise in imports and pushing net imports down 796,000 barrels a day to 1.52 million. That export jump was the dominant force behind the draw, though oil analysts flagged that observed loadings ran roughly 1 million barrels a day below EIA’s reported figure, which would bring the entire balance into question if confirmed.
Domestic production rose 723,000 barrels a day to 13.99 million, a sharp weekly rebound that added supply but wasn’t enough to offset the outbound surge. Gulf Coast inventories fell to their lowest level since December 2024, and Cushing shed another 624,000 barrels.
Total motor gasoline stocks rose 3.9 million barrels to 209.2 million barrels, a near-4 million barrel swing against a Reuters poll expecting a 900,000 barrel draw. Implied gasoline demand fell 622,000 barrels a day, which explains the build, though Midwest stocks sat at record lows, a regional tightness the national headline obscures.
The export number is doing most of the heavy lifting for crude dynamics in the week, and if analysts tracking is right and EIA has overstated outbound flows by around 1 million barrels a day, the crude draw shrinks materially and the balance looks considerably less tight than the headline suggests.
Written by: Farid Muzaffar