Oil plunged 7% to three-week low as Trump halts Iran strikes while OPEC+ lifts output

Global crude benchmarks fell roughly 7% on Monday, sliding to three-week lows after US President Donald Trump called off planned airstrikes against Iran. The move instantly drained geopolitical risk premiums from the market, despite Tehran flatly denying that any peace negotiations were underway.

International Brent crude for October delivery dropped $6.35 (7.0%) to settle at $83.77 a barrel, marking its lowest close since July 13. Part of Brent’s sharp decline was structural, driven by the shift to the cheaper October front-month contract following Friday’s expiration of September futures.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell $4.33 (5.1%) to finish at $80.34 a barrel.

The sell-off gained momentum after Trump claimed talks with Iran were actively taking place to halt the conflict and reopen Middle East transit channels. Downward pricing pressures were exacerbated by Trump calling on major oil firms to reduce US retail fuel prices, sending domestic gasoline and diesel futures down nearly 5%. However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry quickly dismissed the US claims, clarifying that no negotiations or delegation visits were scheduled. Market analysts viewed the price drop as a swift market overreaction to diplomatic rhetoric aimed at curbing rising pump costs.

Sustained downside was reinforced by supply adjustments from producers. Over the weekend, OPEC+ approved a planned production quota increase of roughly 188,000 barrels per day effective September. On the physical front, logistics remain severely disrupted: six Saudi-flagged supertankers altered course in the Gulf of Aden to route around southern Africa to bypass Houthi threats, while overall transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained.

Written by: Aiman Haikal