Morning Briefing - 05 October 2026

MORNING BRIEFING

CommoPlast                 Monday, 05 October 2026

                                                                                                                        commoplast.com

MARKET MOVEMENT

Closing prices, previous trading day. Monomer price directions will not be published during the Golden Week holiday.                  

TODAY’S DEVELOPMENTS

LPG · ASIA

Aramco raises LPG prices as US-to-Asia arbitrage closes

Saudi Aramco has raised its LPG contract prices for a third straight month, with October propane up $55/ton and butane up $70/ton. The move takes the LPG into a three-month rally, setting a notably firmer supply baseline as the Northern Hemisphere heads into winter.

The squeeze is broader than Saudi Arabia. Elevated freight, a narrower US-to-Asia arbitrage and lingering disruption to Saudi crude flows are restricting alternative supply, while Algeria’s Sonatrach has also lifted October LPG prices sharply. With US cargoes less competitive into Asia, Middle Eastern term supply is gaining greater pricing power.

But the rally faces a test on the demand side. Chinese PDH operating rates have recovered to around 80%, restoring a major outlet for propane, but higher feedstock costs could quickly erode margins as buyers return from Golden Week. The question now is whether winter restocking and stronger PDH demand can absorb the higher cost base, or whether weakening margins eventually put the brakes on LPG’s rally.

Read full story:

Shipping premia, pipeline disruption, and heating demand fuel Saudi Aramco’s third LPG hike

SURVEY · CHINA

All eyes on China’s restart as converters return short on resin

China’s converters entered Golden Week with resin stocks at multi-year lows. Across PP, PE and PVC, many are carrying just 1–6 days of material after choosing cash preservation over pre-holiday restocking, while finished-goods inventories and weak orders keep operating rates subdued.

That sets up an unusual post-holiday equation. Producers could return to a heavy inventory position after running through the break, traditionally putting pressure on prices in the first week after the holiday. But downstream buyers have little material left to consume. Once factories restart, some converters may have no choice but to return to the spot market simply to keep production moving.

The question is whether that need-based buying will be enough to challenge the historical pattern of post-Golden Week softness. Buyers are unlikely to chase rallies, but they may also find it difficult to wait for a deep correction when inventories are already critically low. The resulting tug-of-war between swollen producer stocks and depleted downstream inventories could make this year’s post-holiday market very different.

Read full story:

Survey: Chinese PP converters slash pre-holiday resin stocks as 'Golden September' fizzles

Survey: China PE faces uncertain reopening post-Golden Week as inventory build looms

Survey: China PVC converters heads into Golden Week with lean stocks amid persistent property slump

DON’T READ IT LATE

Get the briefing first on Telegram: https://t.me/commoplast