Oil edged higher as renewed US threats against Iran offset oversupply concerns

Global crude oil futures eked out modest gains on Friday, 6 November 2026, as renewed fears of US military strikes against Iran provided late-session support, countering growing evidence of an emerging supply surplus and weakening demand.

The late recovery followed fresh remarks from US President Donald Trump, who said a decision would soon be made on whether to pursue a peace agreement with Iran or launch further strikes to destroy what remained of the country's military capabilities. The comments revived concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies, even as the market increasingly showed signs of easing physical tightness.

Earlier in the week, the US midterm election results had raised expectations of a possible de-escalation in the Iran conflict, potentially paving the way for greater crude exports from the region. However, the election outcome also fuelled concerns over tighter US regulations governing the artificial intelligence industry, triggering a sharp sell-off in technology stocks on Thursday and weighing on broader financial market sentiment.

Meanwhile, signs of weakening fundamentals became more apparent in the physical crude market. Spot premiums for key Middle Eastern crude benchmarks retreated towards levels seen before the conflict, suggesting that supply availability was improving as elevated oil prices continued to erode consumption.

Adding another dimension to Friday's trading, the US Department of Labor reported an increase of 165,000 jobs in October, providing a firmer signal on the resilience of the US economy and offering some support to demand expectations.