Oil settles mixed as Hormuz flow collapse counters US waiver on Russian energy

Global crude oil futures settled mixed on Monday as a severe plunge in Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic and fresh Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure countered a US sanctions waiver on Russian energy export.

Crude benchmarks diverged on Monday as traders weighed profit-taking against acute Middle East transit bottlenecks. Brent slipped 31 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $109.55 a barrel, clawing back nearly all of an early $3 slide from five-month highs. Expiring front-month November WTI jumped $2.25, or 2.2%, in thin volume to close at $103.66 a barrel—its highest finish since 15 September—while the more liquid December WTI contract eased 0.5% to $98.54 a barrel.

Intensifying maritime and infrastructure attacks heavily cushioned the early retreat. Analytics firm Kpler reported that crude flows through the Gulf fell to a seven-day average of 8.5 million bpd last week, down from over 20 million bpd the prior week, after at least 10 commercial vessel incidents and a Sunday mine explosion that set an oil tanker ablaze in the southern Strait of Hormuz. Concurrently, Yemen's Houthis claimed fresh strikes against Saudi Aramco's Yanbu facility, the Shaybah oilfield, and airports in Riyadh and Abha, alongside a deadly assault on a security camp in Yemen's Shabwa province.

Early selling had been triggered after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Friday waiving select sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy exports ahead of the 3 November midterms. Additional supply pressure emerged from a Reuters survey showing September OPEC output climbed on higher Saudi and Iraqi production. However, analysts at Gelber and Associates and Phillip Nova noted that uncertain Russian waiver terms do little to resolve physical export blockages across the Persian Gulf.