Freightos Baltic: Tariff rhetoric whipsawed markets as shippers reassess risk

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Global ocean freight rates were largely flat in the week to 27 January 2026, as softer demand signals offset lingering operational risks, according to Freightos Baltic data. Seasonal front-loading has begun to fade, while renewed volatility in US trade policy continued to undermine shipper confidence, prompting retailers to take a more cautious approach to inventory build-ups.

Asia–North Europe container rates were broadly unchanged week on week, while Asia–Mediterranean prices slipped 5%. Transpacific rates also held mostly steady, though market participants reported early signs of carrier discounting as operators moved to defend volumes amid thinning bookings. The absence of fresh demand catalysts has limited carriers’ near-term pricing leverage, despite ongoing capacity discipline.

Policy uncertainty remains a key overhang. The US last week withdrew proposed tariffs on eight NATO allies following discussions at the World Economic Forum in Davos, reinforcing a recent pattern of aggressive trade threats later softened through negotiations or political resistance. However, fresh warnings quickly resurfaced. Washington floated a potential 25% tariff on all South Korean exports should Seoul’s parliament fail to ratify a previously negotiated bilateral trade deal, while President Trump also raised the prospect of 100% tariffs on Canada if it advances a comprehensive free trade agreement with China. Such reversals continue to inject volatility into forward trade planning, limiting shippers’ willingness to commit to long-term freight exposure.

Weather-related disruptions added another layer of uncertainty. Severe winter conditions swept across large parts of the US northeast, southeast and Midwest over the weekend, disrupting rail, trucking and port operations. While ports in the southeast began a gradual recovery, heavy snowfall kept major northeastern gateways, including New York and New Jersey, closed into Monday. Market participants cautioned that prolonged sub-zero temperatures could slow the normalisation of terminal and landside operations, with potential knock-on effects for inland equipment flows in the days ahead.

Written by: Farid Muzaffar