Crude climbed as attention shifts to Kazakh supply and China demand amid tariff noise

Oil prices advanced on Tuesday, underpinned by fresh supply disruption risks in Kazakhstan and a firmer demand signal from China, which outweighed renewed concerns over trade tensions involving the US and Europe.

Brent settled up 98 cents, or 1.53%, at $64.92/barrel.

February WTI contracts, expiring on Tuesday, gained 90 cents, or 1.51%, to close at $60.34/barrel.

Support came from Kazakhstan, where Tengizchevroil, owned by Chevron, had temporarily halted production at the Tengiz and Korolev oilfields after a power distribution issue. Market sources said the outage could extend for another 7-10 days, potentially curbing crude exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, the main outlet for Kazakh barrels.

Demand-side sentiment also improved after China released stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP data on Monday. The world’s largest crude importer reported full-year economic growth of 5%, reinforcing confidence in underlying fuel consumption. Refinery throughput in 2025 rose 4.1% year-on-year, while domestic crude oil output increased 1.5%, signalling sustained operating momentum across the downstream sector.

Against this backdrop, geopolitical risk remained a secondary but persistent overhang. Trade tensions resurfaced after the US said it would impose additional 10% tariffs from 1 February on imports from several European countries. The levies could rise to 25% from 1 June if no agreement is reached over Greenland. While the rhetoric injected caution into a broader sentiment, it did little to derail the oil market’s focus on immediate supply constraints and demand outlook.

Written by: Farid Muzaffar