Freightos Baltic: Tariff truce is expected to trigger early peak season in transpacific shipping market

A temporary thaw in trade tensions between the United States and China is set to reshape short-term dynamics across global container markets, as both governments announced a 90-day de-escalation of the punitive tariffs introduced in April. Under the new agreement, Washington will scale back duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while Beijing has cut levies on most American imports to 10%.

The détente has triggered cautious optimism among freight forwarders and shipping lines, many of whom anticipate a sharp rebound in transpacific demand in the coming weeks. Industry sources indicate that the 145% tariff regime had driven China-US ocean volumes down by more than 35% since early April. With the pause in place, importers are expected to act swiftly to replenish depleted inventories, while Chinese exporters—many already sitting on high levels of finished goods—are poised to accelerate outbound shipments.

This surge in demand may effectively pull forward the start of this year’s peak season. However, industry analysts note that the early build-up could also lead to an earlier-than-usual tapering, especially if inventory restocking is front-loaded over the 90-day window.

Despite the volume slump in recent weeks, container rates on the transpacific route have held relatively firm. This has largely been due to proactive capacity management by carriers, who have withdrawn an estimated 22% of capacity through blank sailings and service suspensions. As a result, fewer empty containers are returning to China from the US—a trend that may compound equipment shortages just as demand begins to rebound.

With vessels and equipment still repositioning, market participants are bracing for a potential squeeze. Tight space, equipment imbalances, and port congestion—particularly at US import hubs—could emerge in the near term. Shippers may face delays, rate volatility, and difficulty securing bookings as the system strains to adapt to the sudden reversal in volume flows.

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