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The US Department of Commerce has issued a final affirmative determination in its trade investigation into polypropylene (PP) corrugated boxes from China, effectively erecting a formidable barrier to entry for the domestic plastics packaging sector. 

The following table shows the final determination measures from the US Department of Commerce on the dumping margin (China-Wide Entity) and estimated countervailable subsidy rates:

The ruling, published following a series of administrative delays, targets finished PP goods from China under US Customs code 3923.10.9000. By setting a cumulative duty burden exceeding 145%, Washington has moved to insulate domestic producers from what it deems as non-market pricing strategies. The anti-dumping cash deposit rate has been adjusted to 82.21% to account for export subsidies identified in the concurrent countervailing duty (CVD) investigation.

The severity of these margins stems from the application of Adverse Facts Available (AFA). As no Chinese exporters participated in the investigation to contest the allegations or demonstrate independence from state influence, the Department of Commerce assigned the highest theoretical margins. This non-participation has left the Chinese export sector with little recourse as the investigation reaches its zenith.

The final hurdle for the implementation of permanent duty orders is a material injury vote by the US International Trade Commission (ITC), scheduled for 17 February 2026. Industry observers note that the petitioners—a coalition including CoolSeal USA and Inteplast Group—appear confident in the outcome, particularly after the cancellation of a January hearing indicated a robust evidentiary record.

For the broader petrochemical market, the implications are two-fold. In the immediate term, the ruling closes a high-value outlet for Chinese PP converters, likely exacerbating the domestic oversupply that has weighed on regional spot prices. Strategically, this enforcement action may accelerate a shift in the downstream supply chain, as Chinese manufacturers seek to circumvent these tariffs by rerouting production through Southeast Asian hubs. With the US market becoming increasingly inaccessible, the focus now pivots to how these displaced volumes will pressure margins across the Asia-Pacific region.

Written by: Aiman Haikal